Leapfrog

iPhone

I laid awake last night thinking about the iPhone.

Seriously.

I had two ideas that were circling each other like black holes in a death spiral.

First, I think the people who buy the iPhone will also buy more suit jackets... It's just a little too big for the pants pocket, but it will fit nicely into a breast pocket.

Second, Steve mentioned that he wanted to "leapfrog" existing mobile devices with iPhone. But he's also leapfrogging out of the PC wars in a way, and putting a real Apple computer (essentially) in the hands of people who might not (or ever) own a regular computer. Teens who get an iPhone as their first phone are on road to consuming high-end Apple products like the MacBook for the rest of their lives. In mobile-mad countries like Brazil the iPhone will be a status symbol and an affordable handheld computer.

It's a brilliant tactical move that gives Apple a ton of leverage against its competitors and creates a virtuous cycle of phone and PC upgrades.

Jobs set a goal of 1% market share, or 10 million iPhones sold, by 2008. Apple shipped 20 million Macs between January 2001 and June 2006.

Based on those numbers I'd guess that around 2009 there will be more OS X installations worldwide on iPhones than on Macs. That's the game... leapfrog.

Comments

troped says...

Nobody's really noticed, but he's also leapfrogging traditional software developers and making the network the computer. No other smartphone on the market has the ability to actually utilize Web 2.0 software--that's why the full-featured Safari browser means so much. Who cares if you can look at the NY Times all at once? Read the times in an RSS feed. What really matters that you can use the iPhone with Flickr and Youtube and Outside.in (especially something like Outside.in!). Nothing else out there can do that.

The device has limited processing power and limited hard drive space. Apple wants you to fill that hard drive space with movies and music, not the bloatware that Adobe and Microsoft have been dumping on them for years. That's why Google and Yahoo were onstage at the announcement and Microsoft and Adobe were nowhere to be found. This Apple telling them: "Thanks for the years of half-assed development, now take a hike." Only Apple (and maybe a few select vendors) are going to be allowed onto the platform. Everything else will be done through the web--as it should be.

Well, anyway, that's how I want it to be. Apple probably will have to let 3rd party developers on to the platform. As a regular user of Adobe software I'm just sick of their crap. Apple seemed to be screwing Adobe pretty good with Motion and Final Cut. But who knows. The only real question I can't figure is if the iPhone comes preinstalled with Flash.

Posted on Jan 17, 2007

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Posted by Gene Smith on Jan 10, 2007. Before this there was links for 2007-01-10. Next up is links for 2007-01-17.

About the Author

Gene Smith is a principal with nForm, one of Canada's leading user experience consulting firms. He writes about information architecture, interaction design, community, the web and other such topics. More >

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