Mountain pine beetle on cross-Canada tour

At CanUX a few weeks ago I talked about how forest management practices and climate change created the perfect conditions for a mountain pine beetle outbreak.

Today a federal government report confirms that there's a good chance the infestation will spread across Canada. Here are some excerpts from the CP article that should appear in tomorrow's papers:

The massive pine-beetle infestation in British Columbia is threatening other species of trees and could spread across the country, says a federal government report.

The State of Canada's Forests report, released yesterday, said the beetle epidemic is spreading at an alarming rate, with outbreaks in Saskatchewan.

"The epidemic is now threatening different pine species, including the jack pine of the northern boreal forest," the report states.

"Should the beetle take hold there, the infestation could go national."

Bill Wilson, research director for industry, trade and economics with the Canadian Forest Service, said the pine beetle is "less finicky" than other pests when it comes to the trees it prefers. "The mountain pine beetle will make a living in almost any pine."

He said the major concern is the beetle's steady march into Alberta's forests.

"Also, of course, the next step would be breaching through the lodgepole pine, jack pine hybrid zone into the boreal forests."

Mr. Wilson said the cold weather along the northern forest and the fact that the beetle has to search harder for a host jack pine may help slow its pace...

Each infected pine tree can produce enough beetles to infect another 10 to 12 pine trees.

"You can see how it gets to be exponential very quickly," Mr. Wilson said. "It's pretty formidable."

And this bit of local colour is from the Edmonton Journal article: "We've always thought the mountains would be the thing that stopped the infestation -- well, they've blown right past them..."

The mountain pine beetle infestation is a great example of a Big System with inter-related (and interacting) environmental, social, political and economic components. The impacts seem dramatic today, but the whole process was started several generations ago with industrialization and, later, aggressive management of forests.

Now that the flywheel is turning, there's isn't a lot we can do but hope for the kind of extended cold snap that kills the beetle larva. Unfortunately, Environment Canada has predicted another mild winter--and on the whole winters are getting warmer--so there's little chance of that.